Posted 22.08.2012 12:20:04 UTC
Updated 23.08.2012 13:02:16 UTC
Some states that launched the transformation process with great hopes in 2011 reached a happy end whereas issues in some states are increasing with each passing day. Syria is one of them. Bahrain, Iraq and Lebanon too can slide into instability any time. The possibility of a clash between Israel and Iran bothers the region. This tense atmosphere drags the Middle East to clashes and instability. In this week's edition of our program we are going to take up the latest situation in the region.
3 important events that affected the course of political history in the Middle East took place in the last decade. The first one was terrorist attacks that took place on September 11 in 2001 and for which Al Qaeda claimed responsibility. The second one was U.S. occupation of Iraq in April 2003 and the third was the start of the Arab Spring in December 2010. These three important events resulted in developments that changed balances in the region and a change of power in many countries. However, every event was followed by a series of clashes. The first two events resulted in wars between states whereas the third one triggered clashes within states. Therefore we took up clashes in some countries in our recent programs. Changes in power have not resulted in a change in the borders of states so far but many states fear this possibility. Borders drawn by imperialist states led by Britain in the early 20th century are still discussed. Therefore, whenever there is an uprising in a country or the possibility of clashes between states, the possibility of a change in borders is also discussed. Discussions on the possibility of disintegration in countries like Syria, Iraq and Libya in the past few years can be explained in this context.
In addition to these developments, there has been an unnamed war in the region since 1979. The conflict between Iran and Israel has never turned to clashes between the two states but the two states confronted one another indirectly many times. Iran's supporting Hamas and Hezbollah and Israel's backing opponents who stage anti-regime demonstrations in Iran and being number one suspect behind some assassinations in the country, can be shown as the most important examples to this indirect conflict. The possibility of direct clashes between the two states in the past few years continues to be a disastrous scenario. Incidents that started as demands for democratization in Syria and turned today to a power struggle involving regional and global powers, strengthens the idea that new clashes can take place in the Middle East, All these factors increase the possibility of large scale clashes and result in a pessimistic picture.
The essential part of all these signals is internal dynamics in the U.S.
Democratic Presidential Nominee Current President of the United States Barack Obama who is getting ready for a tough race against Republicans, has no intention to be part of a large scale and uncontrolled conflict ahead of the election but circumstances in the Middle East could drag him to a conflict unwillingly. What the U.S. fears most at the moment is Israel's attacking Iran unexpectedly. Although strategic relations between the two countries prevent to a great extent their acting without the knowledge of one another, history has shown that Israel took certain actions that came as a surprise even to the U.S. Nowadays Republicans criticize Obama regarding foreign policy based on insufficient support for Israel. This attitude of Republicans who want to receive the support of the Jewish lobby in the U.S. and tip the scales in their favor, cannot make them win the election but an unexpected clash between Israel and Iran can change balances in the U.S. due to the security atmosphere that it will drag the country to. To sum up, the Middle East is sliding to a period of turmoil due to both internal and outside dynamics and people living in the region are the ones who suffer the most.